Recruitment Market Review: Jersey and UK trends in Q1 2025 with a look ahead

The recruitment landscape across Jersey and the UK in the first quarter of 2025 has been marked by sluggish starts, shifting policy environments, sector-specific resilience, and an overarching sense of cautious optimism. While both markets face economic pressures and employer hesitancy, especially as organisations react to global shifts, they also share common ground in the rise of strategic hiring and the prioritisation of future-focused skills.

Shelley Kendrick, Managing Director, Kendrick Rose, shares her insights.

A slow start in Jersey with spring momentum

The year got off to a slow start for recruitment in Jersey, with firms holding back taking decisions on hiring until staff returned from winter holidays and sick leave.

Shelley said: “January and February were particularly quiet, with recruitment activity subdued by absenteeism and seasonal inactivity. March saw a little more of an upsurge, year end and bonuses (or not) always contributes to some churn at this time of year. Towards the end of Q1 and our advance into early April must have brought a spring to candidate footsteps and client activity.”

This late-Q1 uplift was particularly visible in roles across technology, business change/analyst functions, and private client services, particularly at the senior level. Despite this momentum, redundancies are still occurring across sectors.

Shelley said: “We live in uncertain times, especially on a geo-political level. While it may be tempting to think some roles on our island are insulated from global events, it’s vital to remain alert whatever sector you work in. Don’t stagnate—upskill, stay ahead of the game and be aware of how you can develop other skills to ensure you remain marketable if the unforeseen happens.”

Jersey's policy and wage landscape

Several policy and legislative developments are expected to shape Jersey’s recruitment market moving forward:

• Minimum Wage Hike: As of 1 April 2025, Jersey increased its minimum wage to £13 per hour, the latest step toward implementing a living wage benchmark. This will inevitably impact hiring in low-wage sectors and could influence employer decisions on staffing levels and benefits.
• Employment Law Changes: In February, the Jersey Chamber of Commerce raised alarms about proposed changes to employment and discrimination laws, citing concerns over the burden on SMEs. While the reforms aim to modernise employment practices, their introduction could slow down hiring among more cautious employers.
• Workplace Culture Initiatives: The launch of Jersey’s Best Workplace in January aims to elevate employee satisfaction and retention through a benchmarked assessment of workplace culture. This is expected to enhance employer branding efforts and improve candidate attraction for participating companies.

Tax pressures and caution for UK recruitment

In the UK, Q1 2025 has been defined by employer caution, particularly in response to tax and wage cost increases.

According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), 25% of UK employers planned redundancies in early 2025, the highest figure since 2014 outside the pandemic. Key affected sectors include retail, hospitality, leisure, and transport, driven by:

• National Insurance Contributions rising from 13.8% to 15%
• A lowered earnings threshold to £5,000
• An increase in the National Living Wage

These pressures have pushed one-third of employers to plan price hikes and a quarter to scale back investment—moves that could suppress hiring for the remainder of the year.

Confidence among small businesses has dipped significantly, with 25% forecasting contraction in 2025. The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) Small Business Index put confidence from small businesses at the lowest levels since the pandemic.

Conversely, public sector workers are set to receive above-inflation pay increases, outpacing private sector awards for the first time in four years.

UK recruitment by industry

Despite broad challenges, some UK sectors have demonstrated resilience and even some growth. Data from the Robert Walters Global Jobs Index revealed:

• Professional Services: Vacancies rose 5.37% year-on-year, showing sustained demand even amidst wider economic uncertainty.
• Banking: The UK saw an 11% drop in banking vacancies, while the U.S. banking sector grew, reflecting regional divergence.
• Legal: In-house legal recruitment slowed, though demand remained steady in private equity, venture capital, and regulatory roles.
• Technology: Hiring became more cautious, with longer recruitment cycles—especially for mid to senior roles. Rising costs and inflation have led many firms to delay strategic tech hires.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): The UK is projected to receive £14 billion in AI investments, promising a significant boost to productivity and job creation in the coming years.

Shelley said: “The recruitment industry is poised to navigate a complex landscape throughout 2025. The combination of increased employment costs, potential reductions in workforce investments, and broader economic pressures suggests a cautious approach from employers. However, sectors less affected by these challenges may continue to seek talent, particularly in specialised roles.”

Strategy over speed

As both Jersey and the UK face economic uncertainties and policy shifts, the outlook for recruitment through the rest of 2025 will likely depend on how well organisations adapt to:

• Rising employment costs
• Talent shortages in key areas
• The need to improve employer branding and workplace culture
• Employee expectations around flexibility, purpose, and growth

In both jurisdictions, sectors such as tech, private client services, professional services, and AI remain bright spots, albeit with a focus on strategic rather than reactive hiring.

Shelley said: “The year began on an unstable footing, and the turmoil in markets following changes to trade policy in the USA has not helped. Organisations are trying to maintain a calm front; however, employees need to be prepared for a more volatile environment. At Kendrick Rose we foresee upskilling, agility, and employee value propositions as keys to success in what remains a cautious yet opportunity-filled labour market.”